The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final between Inter Milan (Italy) and Barcelona (Spain) will take place on May 6 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. The first match ended in a 3-3 draw. Inter Milan vs. Barcelona: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi's team managed to hold Barcelona to a 3-3 draw at their home ground in the first leg, extending their unbeaten run in the Champions League to seven matches (5 wins, 2 draws). Additionally, Inter has scored at least twice in each of their last six fixtures in this European competition. However, they have conceded five goals in the last two Champions League matches, despite allowing just three goals in the previous 11 games. To reach their second final in three seasons, the team needs a victory.
- The club has not lost in regular time in their last 14 home matches in the Champions League (11 wins, 3 draws).
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 home games in this European competition.
- Inter has scored exactly one or two goals in regular time in 5 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Nicolò Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Denzel Dumfries – Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Benjamin Pavard and forward Lautaro Martínez are ready for the match after recovering from injuries.
Barcelona
Hans Flick's side, having drawn the first leg, failed to win their second consecutive Champions League match after a previous away defeat to Borussia Dortmund (1-3). Moreover, Barcelona has conceded at least three goals for the third time in this tournament. However, the team has scored the most goals in the current Champions League – 40 goals. To reach their first final in this European competition in ten seasons, the Catalans need to win, and in the case of a draw after 90 minutes, extra time will be played.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 1 draw).
- Both opponents have scored in 8 of Barcelona's last 9 away matches in this European competition.
- The Catalans have conceded at least two goals in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-2-3-1)
Wojciech Szczęsny – Eric García, Iñigo Martínez, Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha Dias – Robert Lewandowski.
Defenders Alex Balde and Jules Koundé, as well as midfielders Pablo Torre, Marc Bernal, and Marc Casado, will not play due to injuries. Forward Robert Lewandowski has recovered from an injury and is ready for the match.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 40%.
Inter Milan vs. Barcelona: Match Prediction
In the first leg, Inter Milan demonstrated their ability to both defend well and attack effectively. Additionally, they have been quite prolific at home in the current Champions League campaign, scoring 13 goals in six matches. The Italian side failed to score at least twice only in two matches, one of which was against Arsenal, one of the best defensive teams in this year's Champions League.
Barcelona is very strong in attack, but Hans Flick's side has yet to solve their defensive issues. The Spanish team scores frequently on the road but also concedes a lot: in the current Champions League, the Catalans have played six away matches, conceding at least two goals in five of them. Overall, the team has conceded 20 goals in this tournament, the worst record among all semi-finalists.
I believe the hosts can capitalize on their opponent's defensive problems and score at least two goals. My prediction: Inter Milan individual total over 1.5 goals
